Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning

Pavlović, Tomislav... and Todosijević, Bojan... and Denkovski, Ognjan... and Van Bavel, Jay Joseph (2022) Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning. PNAS Nexus, 1 (3). ISSN 2752-6542

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Abstract

At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 became a global problem. Despite all the efforts to emphasize the relevance of preventive measures, not everyone adhered to them. Thus, learning more about the characteristics determining attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic is crucial to improving future interventions. In this study, we applied machine learning on the multinational data collected by the International Collaboration on the Social andMoral Psychology of COVID-19 (N = 51,404) to test the predictive efficacy of constructs fromsocial,moral, cognitive, and personality psychology, aswell as socio-demographic factors, in the attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic. The results point to several valuable insights. Internalized moral identity provided themost consistent predictive contribution—individuals perceiving moral traits as central to their self-concept reported higher adherence to preventive measures. Similar results were found for morality as cooperation, symbolized moral identity, self-control, open-mindedness, and collective narcissism, while the inverse relationship was evident for the endorsement of conspiracy theories. However, we also found a non-neglible variability in the explained variance and predictive contributions with respect to macro-level factors such as the pandemic stage or cultural region. Overall, the results underscore the importance of morality-related and contextual factors in understanding adherence to public health recommendations during the pandemic.

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