Institutions and good governance as a factor of migration in Europe

Molnar, Dejan and Ostojić, Ivana and Jovanović, Predrag (2024) Institutions and good governance as a factor of migration in Europe. Stanovništvo. pp. 1-19. ISSN 0038-982X

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Abstract

The research objective is to determine the relative importance of two groups of factors that influence the net migration rate: economic, such as the gross average monthly wages, and non-economic, which include the efficiency of institutional arrangements based primarily on the corruption control and the rule of law indicators. According to the neoclassical theory of migration, economic factors have a dominant influence on the migration decision-making process. On the other hand, the institutional theory of migration advocates the position that institutional and the factors that reflect system of governance prevail over the economic ones. The assumption on which the research is based is that migration is caused to a greater extent by the quality of institutions and good governance indicators, than by the opportunities to achieve a better material position represented by higher average salary. On a sample of 48 European countries, for the period 1996–2021, it is investigated which group of factors dominantly determines the net migration rate. The sample of 48 countries is divided into two sub-samples so that one of them contains the countries with a higher level of income and strong anti-corruption and rule of law standards (28 European Union countries) and the remaining 20 include non-European Union members with lower gross average monthly wages, weak institutions, as well as less favourable indicators of the rule of law and control of corruption. Using the techniques of dynamic econometric analysis of panel data (system GMM), predictors of the net migration rate in European countries are identified. The analysis confirms that the quality of the institutional framework is extremely important and that the rule of law and corruption control has a stronger impact on the net migration in European countries than the gross wages. This is supported by the evaluated parameters corresponding to the explanatory variables in the models. The research also confirms that institutional factors have a stronger impact on the net migration rate in less developed European countries that are not members of the European Union than in the 28 European Union countries. Corruption is an important problem in many countries and citizens are very sensitive to this aspect of institutional quality. The findings of this research show that less developed European countries must pay special attention to building institutions, the rule of law and control of corruption if they want to stop negative trends in net migration, and that these factors prevail over the economic factors that were dominant in the 20th century. Cilj istraživanja je da se utvrdi relativan značaj dve grupe faktora koje determinišu stopu neto migracija: ekonomskih, kao što je visina bruto prosečne mesečne zarade i neekonomskih, koji obuhvataju kvalitet institucionalnog uređenja oslonjen prevashodno na indikatore kontrole korupcije i vladavine prava. Prema neoklasičnoj teoriji migracija ekonomski faktori imaju dominantan uticaj na donošenje odluke o migracijama. Institucionalna teorija migracija zagovara stav da institucionalni i upravljački faktori imaju prevagu nad ekonomskim. Na uzorku od 48 evropskih zemalja, za period 1996 – 2021. godine primenom tehnika dinamičke ekonometrijske analize panel podataka (system GMM) identifikovani su prediktori stope neto migracija u evropskim zemljama. Analiza je potvrdila da je kvalitet institucionalnog okvira od izuzetne važnosti i da su vladavina prava i kontrola korupcije imali snažniji uticaj na neto migracije u zemljama Evrope od bruto prosečnih mesečnih zarada. Istraživanjem je takođe potvrđeno i to da su institucionalni faktori imali snažniji uticaj na neto migracije u manje razvijenim evropskim zemljama koje nisu članice Evropske unije nego u 28 zemalja članica. Manje razvijene evropske zemlje moraju posebnu pažnju posvetiti izgradnji institucija, vladavini prava i kontroli korupcije ukoliko žele da zaustave negativne trendove u neto migracijama, te da ovi faktori imaju prevagu u odnosu na ekonomske koji su bili dominantni u XX veku.

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