IS THERE A TRADE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN SOUTH EAST EUROPEAN AND CENTRAL EUROPEAN ECONOMIES

Nikolić, Goran and Nikolić, Ivan (2021) IS THERE A TRADE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN SOUTH EAST EUROPEAN AND CENTRAL EUROPEAN ECONOMIES. Ekonomski anali, LXVI (231). pp. 7-31. ISSN 0013-3264

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Abstract

Given the importance of trade performance to overall economic fundamentals, the question arises as to the extent that South East European Countries (SEEC) have successfully followed the suc- cessful transition path of Central and East- ern European Countries (CEEC). To ad- dress this issue, we use similarity indicators to calculate possible convergence between the export structures of SEEC and CEEC from 2007–2008 to 2018–2019. We then compute the value of the similarity coeffi- cients of SEEC and CEEC export structures and compare them with EU import struc- tures, and intra-industry trade for both SEEC and CEEC. Next, we calculate the qualitative changes of both SEEC and CEEC merchandise trade through the tendency of technology-intensive products. The results of these two groups are compared to de- termine whether SEEC trade performance is converging to that of the CEEC. The re- sults show structural improvements and an above-average increase in SEEC trade since 2007. However, given the simultaneous, moderate qualitative trade progress in the CEEC, the convergence between these two groups is insufficie t to close the gap in the foreseeable future.

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