Impact Of Coal-Based Electricity Generation, Land Use Change, Steel And Cement Production On CO2 Emissions: Evidence From Eastern European And Central Asian Countries

Lobanov, Mikhail and Zvezdanović Lobanova, Jelena and Milinčić, Miroljub and Zvezdanović, Milan (2025) Impact Of Coal-Based Electricity Generation, Land Use Change, Steel And Cement Production On CO2 Emissions: Evidence From Eastern European And Central Asian Countries. Geography, environment, sustainability, 18 (1). pp. 139-151.

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Abstract

The problem of studying carbon footprint factors is one of the key ones for understanding the relationship between socio-economic development and atmospheric pollution. We employ a panel quantile regression approach to reveal the impact of the energy sector (namely, coal-based electricity and hydropower generation), manufacturing (steel and cement production), and agriculture (cropland area change) on CO2 emissions in 16 Eastern European and 4 Central Asian countries for the period from 2000 to 2020. We provide evidence for a U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve for countries with a lower carbon footprint, while the countries with the highest emissions are found to have an inverted U-shaped relationship between them and GDP per capita. The relationship between electricity production from coal and emissions is positive and significant at all quantiles (except the 30th quantile), and for hydropower, it is negative and significant from the 20th to 70th quantile: a 1% increase in generation leads to CO2 emissions increase by 0.08-0.20% and a decrease by 0.04-0.07%, respectively. Crude steel production positively influences emissions (from the 10th to 80th quantile levels): a 1% increase in the output of steel products results in carbon emissions increase by 0.05-0.07%. The relationship between cropland expansion and emissions is positive from the 40th quantile, but the coefficient shows high significance only at the 80th quantile. These findings allow us to conclude that CO2 emissions reduction in Eastern European and Central Asian countries could be achieved by the replacement of coal in the electricity generation structure by renewables (including hydropower), the introduction of sustainable land use practices to preserve carbon sinks, and technological modernization of crude steel production

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