Marinković, Ivan and Potić, Ivan (2026) Compound Winter Hazards and Excess Mortality: Cold Extremes and Viral Circulation in Vojvodina (2016/2017). Earth Systems and Environment.
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This study investigates how extreme cold and intensified seasonal viral activity shaped mortality patterns in Vojvodina (Serbia) during the exceptionally cold winter of 2016/2017. The research addresses a regional evidence gap concerning the demographic and epidemiological mechanisms that drive excess winter mortality in South-eastern Europe. Across Europe, winter mortality remains a significant public health concern, driven by the combined effects of climatic extremes and the circulation of respiratory viruses. Despite recurring exposure to severe cold spells and influenza epidemics, there has been limited research examining their joint effects in the Western Balkan region. The analysis integrates daily age- and sex-specific mortality counts, high-resolution CHIRTS-daily temperature estimates, and monthly cause-of-death statistics. The study quantifies the individual and joint contributions of cold exposure and viral circulation, identifies cold spells using a threshold of ≤ − 10 °C, and applies correlation analysis to assess the associations between temperature and daily mortality. Mortality during the winter of 2016/2017 increased by approximately 17% compared with surrounding winters, with the sharpest relative rise among individuals aged 75 and over. A single cold spell in early January temporally coincided with approximately 12% of the observed seasonal excess mortality. Cause-of-death data indicate that respiratory and ill-defined causes were associated with approximately 21% of the observed excess mortality, suggesting intensified viral activity. Temperature–mortality correlations confirm a moderately strong negative association, particularly for minimum temperatures.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Institutional centre: | Centre for demographic research |
| Depositing User: | D. Arsenijević |
| Date Deposited: | 04 May 2026 07:43 |
| Last Modified: | 04 May 2026 07:43 |
| URI: | http://iriss.idn.org.rs/id/eprint/2952 |
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