When the wind of change switches its direction: The EU enlargement in the Western Balkans

Ristić, Irena and Vukasović, Dejana M. (2026) When the wind of change switches its direction: The EU enlargement in the Western Balkans. In: EU Enlargement in a Time of Increasing Geopolitical Challenges: ‘Fresh Momentum’ and Beyond. Institute of European Studies, Belgrade, National Centre for Research on Europe at the University of Canterbury, Faculty of Arts, University of Canterbury, Belgrade, Belgrade, p. 13.

	Text Ristić, Vukasović IES Konferencija 2026 Booklet Separat.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives. Download (87kB)
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Abstract

For almost two decades, from 1989 onward, enlargement was the flagship of the European Union and considered one of its most successful policies. The Big Bang enlargement in 2004/2007, and Croatia's entry in 2013, were meant to mark the beginning of the complete political unification of the entire European continent. It, however, marked the beginning of the longest period of nonenlargement in the EU’s history. Within two decades, the enlargement enthusiasm in the European Union, its institutions, member states and among its citizens, was replaced by enlargement scepticism. This scepticism was mainly triggered by economic and regional disparities, political tensions on EU and national levels, perceptions of disempowerment and identity loss within the EU, but directly caused a growing resentment towards new potential members as well. While these are all micro-level consequences, this paper aims to compare the macro-level conditions of enlargement for countries that joined in 2004/2007, on the one hand, and the Western Balkan countries, on the other. To this end it will look at 1) the commitment for enlargement among the political elites in both the EU and the candidate countries through the lens of the respective Zeitgeist (“united Europe” vs “Europe of two classes”); consider 2) the existence vs the lack of strong economic interests as a mutual incentive for successful integration; and analyse how 3) the polycrisis starting in 2009 and reaching its peak in 2022, was historically fundamentally different from the period 1989-2007 and how the single crisis impacted both the EU and the Western Balkans in their positioning towards enlargement.

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