International Energy Security Risk Index—Analysis of the Methodological Settings

Podbregar, Iztok and Šimić, Goran and Radovanović, Mirjana and Filipović, Sanja and Šprajc, Polona (2020) International Energy Security Risk Index—Analysis of the Methodological Settings. Energies, 13 (12). ISSN 1996-1073

Text SFilipovic_Energies_2020_13_12.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives. Download (1MB)

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to analyze model settings of the International Energy Security Risk Index developed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The study was performed using stepwise regression, principal component analysis, and Promax oblique rotation. The conclusion of the regression analysis shows that Crude Oil Price and Global Coal Reserves are sufficient to explain 90% of the variance of the Index. However, if a model that explains 100% of the variance of the Index is chosen and other variables are added, Global Coal Reserves loses importance due to the presence of other parameters in which it is contained. Regardless of the chosen model of analysis, it is evident that there is room for revising the Index and removing variables that do not contribute to its precision. The research showed that the main disadvantage of the variables that make up the Index rests with the fact that the variables are of different degrees of generality, that is, one parameter is contained in other parameters (unclear which other). The research covers data for 25 countries over a 26-year period, with the first year of the research being 1980 and the last 2016 (the latest available report).

Actions (login required)

View Item