Estimating Emigration in the Absence of Population Registers: A Census-Based Residual Method Applied to Serbia (2011–2022)

Marinković, Ivan and Predojević-Despić, Jelena (2025) Estimating Emigration in the Absence of Population Registers: A Census-Based Residual Method Applied to Serbia (2011–2022). In: Demographic Perspectives on Migration in the 21st Century. Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Beč.

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Abstract

Reliable data on emigration remain a persistent challenge across Europe, despite the existence of harmonized statistical definitions at the EU level. In practice, national statistical systems differ significantly in the sources and methods they use—ranging from administrative registers and population surveys to indirect estimates and mirror statistics. This results in inconsistent data quality and limited comparability across countries. The issue is particularly pronounced in traditionally emigrant-sending countries of Eastern and Southeastern Europe, where population registers are often underdeveloped and migration flows insufficiently monitored. Serbia is a typical example of this pattern: although official statistics on emigration formally exist, they are highly unreliable due to weak reporting mechanisms and low compliance with registration obligations. As a result, international estimates rely primarily on immigration data from destination countries, often leading to substantial overestimation caused by repeated registrations of mobile individuals

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