One hundred years of historical, political, and social changes: Is Central Asia ready for an energy transition, or is there no need to rush?

Radovanović, Mirjana and Filipović, Sanja and Orlov, Andrei (2026) One hundred years of historical, political, and social changes: Is Central Asia ready for an energy transition, or is there no need to rush? Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. pp. 117-186. ISSN 1364-0321

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Abstract

The main goal of this paper is to present the historical context and current state, along with the prospects, of a sustainable energy future in one of the most traditionally isolated regions globally—Central Asia. From 1921 to 2025, the countries of this region experienced a series of complex social changes that were fundamentally evolutionary, although at times they occurred rapidly, resulting in enduring repercussions. The paper reviews the main features of the energy sector and society during the USSR era (large infrastructure projects, stability, and socioeconomic development); the post-independence period of Central Asian countries (instability and struggle for power); and the contemporary factors that will shape the region's energy, economic, and social future. The region has an outdated but operational energy infrastructure, rich energy resources, and large potential in renewable energy. Governance is centralized and largely non-transparent; energy markets and energy prices are state-controlled. Regional disputes over the use of hydropower have lasted for decades, hindering socioeconomic progress. The emigration rate is high. The main foreign investor in the sustainable energy transition is China. The sustainable transition of the energy sector has begun, but it is in the early stages. However, given the negative experiences of numerous countries in terms of social and environmental impacts of foreign investment, the region's slow progress should not be assessed as unfavorable. The main recommendations for governing the future sustainable energy transition of Central Asian countries are provided.

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