The Impact of Demographic and Migration Flows on Serbia

Kupiszewski, Marek and Kupiszewska, Dorota and Nikitović, Vladimir (2012) The Impact of Demographic and Migration Flows on Serbia. International Ogranization for Migration, Mission to Serbia, Belgrade. ISBN 978-86-85003-14-1

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Abstract

Like almost all the European countries, Serbia is experiencing population ageing as a result of low fertility and increasing life expectancy. At the same time, economic activity rates there are lower than in many other countries. Negative natural change and emigration mean that Serbia’s overall population is declining. Will these processes continue into the future? How might fertility, mortality and economic activity develop and what impact will this have on population and labour force size and structures? What effect might Serbia’s potential membership of the European Union have? What, in particular, are the potential migration scenarios and their possible consequences? Which policies might be the most effective in counter-balancing population ageing and the potential labour deficit? To answer these questions, demographic experts from the Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research, IOM Warsaw and the Institute of Social Sciences in Belgrade conducted an impact study in order to provide a better understanding of the consequences of demographic and migratory trends for Serbia in the medium term, which is to say, thirty years. This publication gives an account of both the research conducted within that study and its results. In Chapter 2, the research methods adopted are described and the basic indicators defined. Chapter 3 contains an overview of past demographic, migratory and economic activity trends and a description of the assumptions for the future adopted in the forecasts. The forecast results, including a discussion of the impact of migration, are presented in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 considers various policy developments, while the Annex discusses selected issues in respect of data.

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